Online retail sales in the UK are expected to grow by 35-45% during the Black Friday peak trading period (23-30 November) as non-essential stores are now closed until December, British e-commerce association IMRG predicted.
2020 has been a year of huge growth online, as the corona virus pandemic has fundamentally reshaped the retail landscape, IMRG explained. During the period January-October 2020, UK online sales have shown spectacular growth of 34.9%, whereas for 2019 as a whole growth was just at 6.7%.
Due to the huge growth in online parcel deliveries, shoppers are being actively encouraged to make their Christmas purchases earlier this year to avoid massive delivery backlogs too close to Christmas. It is also possible that consumers might be more responsive to Black Friday campaigns earlier in the month this year.
IMRG is tracking 320 retail sites to see when their campaigns go live, and this year there has been a trend for them launching earlier – with 4.3% of them being live on 4 November, while for the same day in 2019 only 2.3% were.
Andy Mulcahy, Strategy and Insight Director at IMRG, said: “We were anticipating a huge surge online this peak, and circumstances have conspired to ensure that is the case; the stores are closed, furlough has been extended and shoppers are being advised to get the bulk of their Christmas shopping done before December. There is a possibility that could mean people buy more in the early weeks of November, pulling some of the volume away from the Black Friday week – that seems the only realistic reason why the online spend for that period could come in lower than +35%.”
Justin Opie, Managing Director at IMRG, commented: “This year’s huge growth rates, and the expected online bonanza the Black Friday period will deliver, underline retail’s rapid structural shift online. This does not feel like a temporary development; further evidence is no longer required that this is a permanent shift. Retailers, including those with stores, with strong online propositions, will continue to trade well. Those without, for whom it’s not already too late, must adapt now if they are to survive.”
The IMRG Capgemini Online Retail Index, which was started in April 2000, tracks 'online sales', which are defined as 'transactions completed fully, including payment, via interactive channels' from any location, including in-store.
