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Tariffs and trade shifts drive up US parcel rates

Higher prices at UPS and other parcel carriers

Shifting trade policies, increased tariffs and economic uncertainty had a big impact on rates in the US logistics sector in the first quarter of 2025, with ground delivery parcel rates climbing due to complex pricing changes.

These findings come from the Q2 2025 TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index, which provides predictive pricing for the truckload, less-than-truckload (LTL) and parcel transportation markets.

Data from the report revealed that truckload pricing will stay at depressed levels in Q2 after a small uptick in Q1, while LTL pricing discipline is working to keep rates flat and parcel carriers are unleashing additional pricing changes to squeeze more revenue from limited volumes.

Uncertainty and caution

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