European parcel deliveries to hit 6.2bn post-pandemic high this festive season, FedEx study predicts

Parcel carriers in Europe will collectively deliver 9% more shipments between October and December 2024 compared to the same period of last year, driven by B2C orders and several fast-growing national markets, according to an upbeat study released today by FedEx.

In total, they are expected to distribute 6.2bn shipments across Europe compared to 5.7bn parcels in 2023, the independent study commissioned from Effigy Consulting found. The study was based on analysis of the market research firm’s courier, express and parcels (CEP) database with 500,000 data points on more than 300 carriers in 41 countries.

B2C peak

The growth has been driven by a rise in e-commerce, with about 4.28 billion shipments expected to go directly to consumers. This is about 70% of the total expected over the October – December period.

The Peak season, which includes Black Friday and the run-up to the festive holidays, is a critical time for European retailers and manufacturers. Around 30% of all volume for 2023 was delivered in the last three months of the year, which highlights the importance of the so-called ‘golden quarter’, seven percentage points higher than the average for the three other quarters.

B2B seasonal upturn

Shipping between businesses also spikes in the Peak season, when stores are restocked, and venues prepare for their busiest season. B2B deliveries are predicted to exceed 1.2 billion shipments, representing about a fifth (19.5%) of total volumes.

Almost another tenth (8%) being consumer-to-consumer shipments as gifts are sent to friends and families across the continent. The remaining couple of percent is consumer-to-business shipments.

Biggest markets

The European countries with the highest volume of deliveries during this Peak season are expected to be the UK (1.29bn, +10.9%) and Germany (1.08bn, +5.3%).

They are followed by France with 525 million parcels (+4.8%), Turkey (476.5m, +10%), Poland (456m, +14.2%), Spain (417m, +10.8%), Italy (365m, +8.2%) and the Netherlands (226.5m, +7.7%), according to the Effigy figures.

Critical time

Wouter Roels, Regional President of Europe at FedEx, commented: “Peak season is a critical time for the logistics sector and the countless businesses that we support. This year is expected to be the biggest since the pandemic for parcel deliveries, reflecting the strength of European ecommerce.

“Shipping across continents and countries is crucial to trade and growth, with this ‘golden quarter’ representing the difference between profit and loss for retailers and businesses. Alongside our customers, we’ve been preparing to ensure we make this Peak a success.”

Cross-border business

Notably, Europe is forecast to import more goods from outside the continent than it exports, with almost 200 million shipments coming in, for instance from China and the USA, compared to 75 million going out. However, almost half a billion of the parcels shipped this Peak season in Europe are expected to be exports, with European based businesses shipping nearly 500 million parcels to other countries both inside and outside the EU.

Roels continued: “This study also shows that Europe’s role as an exporting region should not be overlooked, highlighting the importance of having excellent intercontinental air and intra-European air and road logistics networks. At FedEx, we also leverage the data flowing through our physical networks to support businesses through Peak – with each package scanned 20-25 times and capabilities to harness this data for monitoring and critical interventions.”