German parcel carriers gear up for short and uncertain peak season

Top parcel carriers in Germany, including DHL, DPD, Hermes and GLS, are expanding services and partnerships amid mixed forecasts for Black Friday sales and this year’s peak season due to an uncertain economic outlook.

On the demand side, the German e-commerce market is showing increasing signs of stabilising. The latest quarterly figures from the German e-commerce association Bevh show that sales grew by 1.5% to €17.3 billion in July – September 2024, nearly compensating for the downturn in the half of this year and leaving nine-month sales only slightly lower (-0.4%) at €55.4 billion. Growth drivers last quarter were clothes (+2.7%), everyday needs (+3.7%), and medical products (+11%).

But it is unclear to what extent the current Black Friday sales will boost e-commerce overall in the peak final quarter of 2024. The German Retail Association (HDE) has predicted stagnating turnover of about €5.9 billion for the Black Friday – Cyber Monday period as consumers seek bargains and early Christmas presents but generally hold back on spending. The association predicts low sales growth of 1.3% to €121.4 billion for November and December combined along with the same growth rate for 2024 as a whole.

Cautious CEP market forecast

Against this uncertain economic background, the German courier, express and parcel (CEP) industry expects only low or moderate growth at best in the final quarter of this year, with higher B2C volumes but declining B2B shipments.  

In a cautious forecast, the German Parcel and Express Logistics Association (BPEX) now expects total market volume growth of between 1% and 3% to around 735 million shipments in November and December, approx. 10 million more than in the same period of 2023. B2C deliveries are predicted to increase about 3.6% to around 435 million shipments while B2B shipments will fall year-on-year.

More positively, however, market researchers Effigy (whose figures have a different calculation basis) have predicted a 5.3% rise to 1.08 billion deliveries in Germany during the 2024 peak season in a recent study for FedEx.

Higher volumes and prices at DHL

Judging by recent figures, DHL Parcel Germany is one of the winners this year after increasing volumes by 5.4% to 433 million last quarter. Deutsche Post and DHL Parcel Germany combined are expecting a strong peak season with more than 11 million parcels daily on peak days from Cyber Monday week (in early December) onwards, compared to 6.3 million on normal average days. 10,500 temporary staff have been taken on to cope with the seasonal surge.

At the same time, DHL Parcel Germany has announced price increases for business customers from October 1 onwards on an individual basis but not disclosed any average increases. The German market leader justified these increases on the basis of higher operating costs, including pay rises and investments in its network and decarbonisation measures. In addition, consumers also face “moderate” price increases for certain parcel categories within Germany next year along with higher letter prices.  

In a separate move, DHL Express Germany is expanding its services for private customers who can now ship international parcels that are liable to customs duties from more than 9,000 DHL Group retail outlets.

DPD myflexbox partnership

Meanwhile, DPD Germany, which is in the midst of a major transformation programme under new CEO Karsten Schwarz aimed at reducing costs and returning the company to profitability following heavy losses, has just announced another major move to expand its out-of-home (OOH) delivery network.

Already last month, DPD and GLS presented plans to combine their OOH networks with a joint open parcel locker network and by opening their parcel shops to each other, with the target of reaching 20,000 parcel collection and drop-off points by 2027. In parallel, DPD plans to increase the number of its parcel shops by 20% to 10,000 by the end of this year.

From the beginning of 2025, DPD customers will also be able to receive and drop off parcels across Germany through myflexbox parcel stations. The first myflexbox parcel stations are already available as part of a pilot project in the greater Hamburg area. The Austrian company aims to have deployed about 1,000 carrier-neutral lockers across Germany by the end of next year.

Michael Knaupe, Chief Customer Experience & Business Development Officer at DPD Germany, said: “Through the cooperation with myflexbox, we are continuing our out-of-home strategy in a targeted manner. As part of our network partnership with GLS, we will put a total of 1,000 parcel stations into operation as early as next year. By working with myflexbox, our customers also benefit from even more parcel stations in their vicinity where they can pick up, send or return their DPD parcels around the clock. In this way, we are improving our range of services and noticeably increasing the added value for our shipping and receiving customers.”

For peak season, up to 11,000 delivery workers will be in operation for Germany’s second-largest parcel company.

Hermes ready for tight peak

For its part, Hermes Germany has prepared intensively for peak season, when it expects to be processing more than 2.9 million parcels a day on the busiest days. The B2C parcels specialist will be using up to 13,000 delivery workers compared to the usual daily workforce of about 10,500 and has added 3,500 vehicles for deliveries.

New CEO Dennis Kollmann said: "We are in the starting blocks for the Christmas season, which experience has shown to get going with the so-called Black Week at the end of November. The market environment remains extremely challenging this year. Nevertheless, we are cautiously optimistic that consumer sentiment will recover somewhat in the last weeks of the year. Overall, we expect a higher shipment volume in the period from October to December than in the previous year.”

But he cautioned: "This year, the constellation is particularly exciting from a logistical perspective. From Black Friday, which falls on the penultimate day of November, we only have three full weeks until Christmas Eve – that will be a sporting challenge."

TAN-secured deliveries

Meanwhile, Hermes has expanded its service portfolio for online retailers with the introduction of TAN-secured deliveries. If this optional service is booked, the recipients of Hermes Germany will receive a TAN by e-mail as soon as the logistics company has received the information about the shipment. This four-digit numerical code, which is valid once, is required at the handover.

In a separate move, in response to a new requirement under the forthcoming German postal law, Hermes has updated its packaging labels with symbols to show heavy parcel weights (+10kgs, +20kgs).

GLS capacity expansion

Finally, GLS has taken on about 3,500 additional workers and added 1,500 more vehicles ready for this year’s peak season, when it expects to be handling well over 1 million parcels a day. Overall, the company expects stable volumes in 2024 compared to last year.

The international parcels operator will benefit from a new e-commerce portal for online retailers and the additional capacity of its new Berlin hub.